The VM Encryption Prediction thread.

[lincsat]

OK Peeps, as there has been much speculation and theories and more than our fair share of doom and gloom predictions, I though t I would start a prediction thread.

Here's the rules - NO FLAMING and only 1 post per member, unless it's a clarification. This is for fun only and I get to go first

Update to the rules - all OT posts will be removed, encryption roll-out predictions only

I am 99.99% confident that N1 will still be in use on January 1st 2010 and 99% confident it will still be in use at Easter 2010. I am 60% confident that N1 will still be active on January 1 2011 and 50% confident that the Virgin network will not be 100% N3 by the 2012 Olympics.

[mkhan]

I would forget about N3 for the moment. Since its approaching Christmas there may be another change in the key roll method.

[michael2004]

well i would say that 1 am 100% sure there will be a work around for the n3 when it hits us all. wether it be cardshareing are a full hack for fta boxes. not too sure on a plastic hack .

[Kangochad]

I brought some fireworks today and I'm going to send my KV up with the big rocket.

Nah, honestly, I don't know what to think. People say one thing then others say another,

Might I add though that they have all been interesting reads. I just hope Lincsat is right!!

[dannyt0812]

I predict a verrrrrrrrrrrrrrry long wait before N3 is fully implemented in the VM network (that's if they actually manage to get it right)

[TheCoder]

I predict there will be no set time for switchover as it will likely happen on an area by area basis determined by VM's weird priority criteria. If I had to guess any further i'd say exCW areas will be first, merely because they are marginally easier to switch.

First switchover will almost certainly be the Leeds area and likely early next year. There are two possible scenarious for switchover -

1/ All subscribers in the affected area will receive cards in a short period of time and there will then be a relatively short (3 months or so) period of N1/N3 simulcrypt followed by N1 being switched off.

2/ Cards will be provided on a tiered basis so that initially only high tier subscribers (sports/movies) will get them. There will then be a relatively short period of simulcrypt on the high tier channels at which point N1 will be switched off on those channels. The lower tier channels will remain on N1 for a longer period of time

[rizlaman]

Originally Posted by TheCoder

I predict there will be no set time for switchover as it will likely happen on an area by area basis determined by VM's weird priority criteria. If I had to guess any further i'd say exCW areas will be first, merely because they are marginally easier to switch.

First switchover will almost certainly be the Leeds area and likely early next year. There are two possible scenarious for switchover -

1/ All subscribers in the affected area will receive cards in a short period of time and there will then be a relatively short (3 months or so) period of N1/N3 simulcrypt followed by N1 being switched off.

2/ Cards will be provided on a tiered basis so that initially only high tier subscribers (sports/movies) will get them. There will then be a relatively short period of simulcrypt on the high tier channels at which point N1 will be switched off on those channels. The lower tier channels will remain on N1 for a longer period of time

2/ Cards will be provided on a tiered basis so that initially only high tier subscribers (sports/movies) will get them. There will then be a relatively short period of simulcrypt on the high tier channels at which point N1 will be switched off on those channels. The lower tier channels will remain on N1 for a longer period of time

yes i think your right thats wat went on in ireland remember reading about it,i predict leeds will be partly nagra 3 by christmas 2009 and we ntl will be partly nagra 3 by march 2010 running nagra 1 and 2 at same time untill complete switch off of nagra 1 december 2010. hope im couple of years out thoe just a wild guess

[gillieboy]

here hoping lincsat right and i will take these dates anytime thank god virgin aint like the tory party or it would have been us poor scots 1st again for the test . remember the poll tax..........................

[Confused Stu]

OK, here's my little wild-assed-guess:

- First cards posted early November 2009 to one area,
- Second batches of cards posted out January to 3 more areas,
- First area's N1 turned off February 2010
- Remaining cards sent nationwide late March 2010
- Second area N1 turned off May 2010
- Remaining N1 streams turned off nationwide July 2010

I have NO information to back this up and sincerely hope I'm wrong (Windows 7 finally means my HTPC works properly for the first time in it's life!), but this is my guess while we're all playing.

[tigro]

As far as I am aware we still have NO solid proof N3 is coming, My guess is simple network upgrades, then gradually over the next 1 to 2 years implement IPTV, which will be the end of it